Friday, August 21, 2009

They Have Laws?

In a stunning twist, Mexico has declared that possession of marijuana, cocaine & heroin is now "decriminalized" so long as the quantity is small and for personal use only. I assume cartel running and border distribution are still illegal.

Now, the cynic in me would point out that the complete lack of institutional control of their country has led to these things, along with everything else, being completely legal for many a year now but for the sake of argument I'll assume Mexico is actually a legitimate country that has the ability to enforce laws.

The real question is, why stop with making possession illegal?

Can you imagine what the cartels would do if their illicit endeavor were suddenly legal? Subject to taxation, regulation or government takeover?

It would spark one of two ways. The business could go legit, growing and producing drugs in plain sight but then they would still have to get them into other countries illegally, they can't sell everything to Amsterdam.

It could also explode in the governments face. Legalization solely in Mexico wouldn't help the cartels much, there isn't any market in Mexico so they would still need to export for profits, assuming all the same risks as before. The only thing legalization adds to the equation for the cartels is that the government would try and get their hands in the dope filled cookie jar. Unfortunately for the government, the cartels are the stronger entity and both sides know it. Any attempts to get money for the cartels would just lead to more conflict between the Army and the cartels.

So what should Mexico do? I would say do both to some extent. Legalize drugs, don't enforce the border, don't try and extract any money from the cartels.

This would achieve the main Mexican objective, removing the violence from the Mexican side of the border. No more clashes with the Army, no more snitches, kidnappings etc. All Mexico would have to do is convince the cartels to leave each other alone, which shouldn't be hard considering all the cartels have to gain by operating in a free-zone the size of Mexico.

Now this does cause problems for Mexico's neighbors. Traffic across the border and drug dealing would all increase in major cities and border crossings. The flood of new drugs would lead to lower costs and thus wider distribution. The increase in distribution over a wider area would lead to an increase in domestic crime from both drug addicts, who tend to have a high crime rate and drug dealers who would be fighting over the expanded dealing territory. See the genius? All the turf wars and social decline from pervasive drug use could happen abroad instead of in Mexico. Who knows? maybe the cartels might actually employ some Mexicans to work in the new production farms.

Would this blatant ducking of responsibility really shock anybody Mexico is already a bad neighboring country. If they implement my plan of exportation of crime and violence the can just be a bad neighbor instead of a bad neighbor that is on the borderline of being a failed state.
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