History Illuminated

I certainly hope that Colts coach Jim Caldwell is a student of history.

Not ancient history either, just recent history. As in the Oakland Raiders of the early 2000's. If he looks closely, he'll see a close image of his own team.

Not a good thing.

Those Raiders had been built into a title contender by John Gruden, mostly because Rich Gannon was playing at MVP level. Just like Tony Dungy built up a championship team with Peyton Manning.

The year following Gruden's departure, first year head coach Bill Callahan leads the Raiders to the Super Bowl and loses. Just like first year coach Caldwell led the Colts to a Super Bowl and lost in his first year.

In Callahan's second year, NFL MVP Gannon breaks his neck and ends his career. The aging team plummets to the bottom of the league and would remain there for a decade. Almost like the Colts. This years Colts team was really old and awful and only won the games it did because of Manning. Had Manning gotten hurt like Gannon did, there is no doubt that the Colts were a 2-14 team.

Most troubling for Caldwell is that after the Raiders plunged into craptitude, Al Davis realized that Callahan wasn't a good head coach and that he only got to the SB because Gruden left so much behind. Davis promptly fired him. I don't know what the Colts owner sees, or doesn't see, in Caldwell but Manning is nearing the end of his time as the dominant NFL QB, even if he didn't get hurt. Given the Colts rapidly closing window of contention, if Irsay gets it in his head that Caldwell is just riding on Dungy's fumes, then his tenure could follow the same two year arc that Callahan's did.

There Are 2 Teams, Right?

It's hard to believe how much love the Colts are getting heading into this weekend's Super Bowl.

The refrain from nearly every pundit of note is that the Colts will win, fairly handily, because Peyton Manning is unstoppable. It seems as if they have no other reason to think so highly of the Colts because that's the only reason given.

I've actually been hearing comparisons between this years game and the Colts/Bears Super Bowl a few years ago, which is absurd. The Saints are far superior to that offensively bankrupt Bears team. Let us also not forget how Peyton Manning, just a few short years ago, was a guy who couldn't win outside when the had to go up to New England. manning got flustered and choked in the fresh air.

Also being forgotten by the media is the fact that the Saints are far better suited for playing on the grass. They are a better running team, have bigger receivers and have a defense that isn't completely reliant on speed. The Colts have almost no running game to speak of and receivers who seem to play much better on the fast track than they do on turf. They also have a small defense that gets smaller if Freeney isn't full speed.

It's as if people forget that the Saints were 13-0 at one point as well. I don't think the Saints should be the favorite or anything but the game is a pick-em, not a Colts -6 situation.

My pick Saints 28 Colts 24.

Deconstructing Bill

Last nights Pats-Colts game could not have gone much better. Bellicheat blows and easy one, Tom Brady takes the loss and if you took the Pats plus the points, you still won. If there was a way to remove a Manning win from the equation, everything would have been perfect. Either way, it was good times all around.

I must say though, the post game analysis leaves something to be desired. Everybody seems to be a hammering Bill on going for it, arguing the spot or beating a dead horse about blown timeouts.

The spot and the decision to go for it were both fine. The timeouts were indefensible but it shouldn't have mattered.

The only problem was the play called.

If you have a chance to put away the Colts by gaining two yards, you have to take it. No way Manning wasn't going to score after the punt. If you're going to man up and go for the win though, how about you call a play that is designed to get you, oh I don't know, three, four yards instead of 2 yards two inches? Seriously, the best you can come up with is a 2 yard out to Kevin Faulk? Does Wes Welker not no how to run a quick out? Maybe a play action pass to Moss?

If you're going to stake a game on one play you simply cannot cut it that close and count on a octogenarian running back to make the play, especially when Indianapolis was crowding the line looking for the quick snap and toss. That's just a little too cute Bellichek, lets hope nobody was stealing tape on that call.