Election Night Running Diary

Oaklahoma and West Virginia SEN - Good for Tom Coburn, Yuck for Manchin. I guess the people of WV don't like mining coal. Glad there's such an abundance of jobs there.

Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina SEN - Nice job John Bozeman, Johnny Izakson, Richard Burr & Richard Shelby. I hope Blanche Lincoln fully realizes what a tool she is. I doubt it.
Deleware SEN - Bearded Marxist projected to win. 0% reported so far.

Maryland SEN - I can't imagine what Maryland is so happy with that they keep electing Barbara Mukulski. Maybe if Baltimore becomes completely unlivable they'll nominate her for President.

Florida SEN - Rubio thouroughly humiliates Crist. Awesome.

Ohio SEN - Portman Wins. Ohio is supposedly a swing state that splits the vote pretty evenly yet Portman gets the call before 1 percent of the votes are actually counted. Wave indeed.

Vermont SEN - Proving that Vermont is stickign with socialists and maple syrup no matter what the rest of us say, Pat Leahy gets reelected for his 100th Senate term.

Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina SEN - Well that was quick. Coats, Paul and DeMint roll. I guess that Brad Ellsworth Leviathan was a myth.

A Week Out

With only a week to go before election day polling has gone from being unreliable to full on propaganda. This isn't unusual, polls typically tighten up and fluctuate the closer it gets to election day as pollster either try and produce polls to help a particular candidate or they try and get their polls more accurate so that in the end they will look legitimate. Normally these polls are a good way to track momentum (even if the numbers themselves are wrong) but there are two reasons why these polls may be less helpful than usual this year.

The first one is the increase in popularity of early voting. A late breaking trend in the polls doesn't really matter if most of the ballots have already been cast. I heard that 75% of Colorado voters would participate in some kind of early voting. If this is true, it would clearly help Senate candidate Ken Buck who has been trying to beat back withering personal attacks from Bennett and his supporters. he needs the vote to happen ASAP before the attacks diminish his profile with the voters. On the other hand, the early voting phenomenon would seem bad news for Tom Tancredo, who has been gaining late traction as a third party candidate for Governor. He needs more time to get people to abandon Republican corpse Dan Maes and not just vote for him because he's on the top line. I don't know if that 75% will turn out to be accurate but if it is, it could swing two races in opposite directions.

The second reason is how the polls are taken. Specifically the samples. Most of the polls I've seen recently that show Democratic momentum have confusing samples. Mid term elections have traditionally shown much lower turnout than Presidential years yet these polls are showing Democratic turnout not only matching 2006 mid term elections but also matching the 2008 Presidential election turnout. Given the participation of minorities and first time voters in the historic Obama election, I find it very hard to believe that that is possible. There is no way there will be so many first time voters who get caught up in a midterm election. The same polling companies that are predicting this liberal turnout also have polls showing a massive enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats with the GOP far more (60%-27% in one poll I saw) enthusiastic then the Dems. According to these polls, the youth army Obama relied on not only to vote but to work the campaigns seem to have packed up shop for this go around. One of the polls has to be wrong. If there is that wide an enthusiasm gap, then Democratic turnout can't possibly be as high the fervor in 2008 or even the turnout for the Foley/Pelosi elections in 2006.

Knowing the political leanings of the polling media, we can safely assume that the enthusiasm polls are right, making the sample sizes the culprit for fraudulent polls. Having said that, it's possible that the turnout does come in higher than anticipated. When Obama was elected, we were all told that he had motivated a new generation of young civic activists who would be involved in every election from here on out. If that's true and all the young, minority and first time voters come out to vote, then Obama can truly be called a transformational figure as the youth vote has been notoriously hard to keep motivated past any one election cycle. If the they don't come out though, that'll be the final proof needed to know that Obama the Transformational Liberal Icon is nothing but pure fantasy.

Truth In Advertising

It probably seems strange to people in the other 49 states that liberal politicians from Denver don't seem to do very well in statewide elections in Colorado. After all, Denver is by far the largest metro area in the state, with by far the most money, yet all that built in advantage hasn't added up to much success in Gubernatorial or Senate races.

Denver Mayor and wannabe CO Governor John Hickenlooper was nice enough to show us all why. In an interview, Hick was asked why the Matthew Shepard Foundation has chosen to set up offices in Denver, even though the Shepards had no connection to the area. Hick responded by saying that Denver was an open and accepting city whereas the rest of Colorado and all of rural Montana, Wyoming, Montana and New Mexico was full of backward thinking people.

You know, backward thinking like it would be a good idea to tie a man to a barb wired fence and beat him to death because he was gay.

Nice job of alienating an entire region of people Hick, many of whom you seem to need to get your next job. I'm sure all the people in Pueblo, Grand Junction, Colorado Springs, Durango, Ft. Collins, Greeley, Alamosa, etc. are just pleased as punch for you to have grouped them in to murderous hate crimes. Seems like as good an idea as a West Virginian politician comparing all his constituents to the black hats in Deliverance.

While offensive, Hick's comments proved again that behind his aw-shucks, moron persona, he's just another hyper elitist at home in Denver and Boulder and nowhere else. I'm glad he finally got a little exposure, it seemed as if he would go through the whole election without any scrutiny as the Republicans just cannibalized themselves. Aside from that embarrassing environmentalist flip flopping incident, Hick has been invisible. Now all the voters have is one nasty stereotyping message from a man who wants the state house. Just in time for the elections! Nice timing.

In a related story, Magellan released a poll that showed Tancredo within 1 point of Hick, 44%-43%, with Maes falling to 8%. That poll was taken before Hicks comments hit the press.

You think they'll make a difference?

State of the State

New polls means it's time to look at November's matchups.

CO - 1, 2, 5,6: The incumbents all roll. (D-DeGette, D-Polis, R-Lamborn, R-Coffman)

CO -3: A poll commissioned by Republican challenger Scott Tipton showed him with a 4 point lead over incumbent John Salazar. I realize this is a poll commissioned by Tipton but I'm still surprised at the result. He got thrashed by Salazar in 2006 and most people thought it was a shoe in again. I'll feel more comfortable if I see some independent polling on it but my eyes are now open to the possibility of a Tipton win. Cook Political has had this race as lean Dem for a while now but I could never figure out why, I though Salazar was well liked. Mistakenly I guess. One thing about the poll is that it showed low support for both candidates (43-39, I believe). If Salazar is really only pulling 39% being as well known as he is, he's in big trouble.

CO - 4: Incumbent Betsy Markey seems to be doing her best to hide from everyone in hopes that people will forget shes a Pelosi clone. Recent clips show her trying to flip flop on big ticket issues to please whoever shes talking too. Cory Gardner hasn't exactly been lighting it up but given the state mood polls, he should still be the favorite.

CO - 7: Magellan Strategies released a poll showing incumbent D-Ed Perlmutter trailing Ryan Frazier 40-39. More low numbers for both guys is better for Frazier as he is a former City Councilman with low name recognition while Perlmutter is well known. Perlmutter's strategy of stockpiling a billion dollar war chest and not doing anything in public seems to not be working. I guess the good people in CO-7 are looking for some answers about the state of the country and Perlmutter has been so off the map he makes Markey look like a leftist Sarah Palin barnstorming the country.

GOV: A new Rasmussen poll shows Hickenlooper leading tea party candidate Dan Maes by only 8, 41-33 with spoiled baby spoiler Tom Tancredo stealing 16 percent. A two way race between Hick and Maes is tied at 45. Maes seems to have the big mo but if Tancredo stays in the race, he can't win. It's amazing he's got within 8 and it shows how vulnerable Hick is. Hick spent this last week pissing off almost everybody by backtracking on liberal talking points while saying taxes are as low as they can go. Democrat enthusiasm is already low, Hick can't afford to depress them even further by distancing himself from traditional left wing positions on taxes, energy and the environment.

SEN - Ken Buck is up by 6-9 depending on the poll and is clearly in front as Bennett seems to be drawing the ire of liberals for saying the trillion dollar stimulus hasn't shown any results. Hard to see how a zero like Bennett can reverse the trend here.

Republicans have a realistic show of carrying 5 of 7 Congressional seats (1&2 are lost) and the Senate seat. If Tancredo comes to his senses and drops out, Maes becomes a contender as well. Colorado GOP has a history of blowing momentum so it's way too early to be confident but the candidates seem way more competent than the state party so everything looking good. November can't get here fast enough.

State of the Race

Time to check in on how the Colorado midterm elections are shaping up.

CO 1 - No troubles for Diana DeGette(D). Couldn't even tell you if she has an opponent.

CO 2 - No trouble for that Polis fella. Last time I checked, Republicans couldn't even find a candidate to run in Boulder.

CO 3 - Cook political has kept this race at "Lean Democrat" but I'm not sure why. John Salazar isn't the most popular guy in the world but Scott Tipton and Bob McDonnell haven't generated much buzz or money to the best of my knowledge. I'm sure the public opinion of Ken Salazar isn't helping his brother much.

CO 4 - Cory Gardner finally beat out the also-rans and gets to take out Betsy Markey, who seems to have tons of cash (most of it from outside CO) but not much passionate support. If this seat doesn't go back to the R's, it will be a disappointment. Gardner has a real talent for making mistakes.

CO 5 - Doug Lamborn(R) rolls.

CO 6- Mike Coffman(R) rolls.

CO 7 - Ryan Frazier has all the momentum over McCain carpetbagger Lang Sias. Ed Perlmutter is doing his best not to be noticed nor spend money. Frazier continues to fund raise at a high level. This district has flip flopped between Republicans and Democrats over the years and Perlmutter has done nothing to distinguish himself as being unbeatable. Something to watch as polling gets going after the primaries.

CO REP. SEN. PRIMARY - Ken Buck has opened up a 10 point lead over Jane Norton in the Republican primary. This is amazing considering all the political machinery Norton has in her corner. Good lord she's unpredictable though.

CO DEM SEN PRIMARY - Andrew Romanoff somehow managed to get involved in a White House job scandal and still not be noticed. Why Obama felt the need to bribe this incompetent politician is beyond me. Michael Bennett should get the nomination.

CO SEN - Both Buck and Norton poll ahead of both Dem candidates although Norton is virtually tied. Oddly enough, Romanoff polls better than Bennett despite his pathetic campaign. Doesn't say much for Bennett's chances in November.

CO GOV. - Last poll I saw had McInnis holding a 6-7 point lead for the second consecutive polling period. Clearly the Democratic fervor over Hickenlooper has died down since his record on taxes and job creation have become known. He too has gone into hiding to lessen the exposure.

2010 Elections - CO

Well, let's take a quick look at the state of Colorado's elections shall we?

CO-1: Diana DeGette (D) still running unopposed as far as I can tell.

CO-2: Jared Polis has 3 token Republicans trying to win the right to lose to one of Congress's least liked members. If any Dem dared to challenge Polis, he'd be out.

CO-3: Scott Tipton showed a strong fourth quarter fundraising making his effort against John Salazar somewhat interesting. This is a Republican district but Salazar is usually pretty popular but something in the polling made the Cook Political drop this from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat". Not a surge yet but something to keep an eye on.

CO-4: A slew of Republicans are chomping at the bit to knock off Betsy Markey but none of them is showing tons of political acumen. Still, Markey has to be worried that she doesn't have a bigger cash lead.

CO-5: Doug Lamborn still running unopposed.

CO-6: Somebody is running against Mike Coffman but it doesn't matter, Coffman rolls.

CO-7: Ryan Frazier is the clear Republican front runner now after outraising both McCain stooge Lang Sias and Democrat incumbent Ed Perlmutter. Perlmutter still has big cash advantage as he is popular with everyone outside of Colorado but Frazier has the momentum at this point.

Governor: Scott McInnis (R) is screaming jobs and taxes all over the state after the Democrat controlled state legislature is trying to raise taxes on everything. Fake "Aw-Schuckser" John Hickenlooper is in a bit of hot water for giving a speech on how global warming may not exist to a bunch of oil people just months after going to Copenhagen to try and get a worldwide global warming treaty signed. Hick is also being implicated in covering-up the racially motivated assaults in the Denver area where black gangs were targeting whites in the downtown area. Supposedly Hick knew that they were racially motivated months before announcing that fact to the public. There were numerous assaults during this time where a public warning may have prevented or minimized some of that damage. This is still brewing but the polls are close and law and order issues may benefit McInnis, a former police officer.

CO-Senate: Jane Norton is still leading both Bennett and Romanoff in the polls and she just did an ad buy on both TV and radio linking Bennett to Obama and slamming them both for the stimulus failure. Ken Buck still trails in the primary race, badly.

Rocky Mountain Hysteria

Boy, I haven't seen Colorado liberals this excited since Obama extended unemployment benefits a few more weeks. I understood the joy over that, if I was a goldbricker I'd be stoked too about four more weeks of doin nothin. Not sure I follow the ecstasy here though.

Having your very liberal incumbent Governor quit mid reelection? Bad. That he did so to "spend more time with his family" (stop fooling around on his wife)? Bad. Possible replacements? Lets see.

The crowd favorite seems to be Alamosa's own, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, former CO senator and brother of 3rd district Rep. John Salazar. The leftist blogosphere has applied mythical status to his popularity in Colorado. A casual sampling of these fine folks commenting on the subject seem to think that in a race against Scott McInnis, Salazar would get between 59 and 71 percent of the vote. It's true the man was popular when he got elected to the Senate. All Democrats were at the time. Now Salazar hasn't got the benefit of running on the wave of anti-Bush sentiment. Now he is tainted with the stink of Obama and all of the failures associated with that administration. That will be a huge anchor for him in a statewide election that has turned against Obama, outside of Boulder and some of Denver anyway. Besides, all the bad things Ritter did policy wise are no different than what Salazar would have done as well. McInnis has a realistic chance to take down Salazar should that be the matchup. Also an odd showdown between politicians from small, western slope Colorado, McInnis based in Grand Junction, Salazar in Alamosa/Pueblo.

The best thing about Salazar running would be the fact that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper wouldn't be. He is incredibly popular in Denver and should have replaced Salazar in the Senate instead of Bennett. I'm not convinced McInnis could have taken him down so hopefully he stays out.

Other candidates. Jared Polis - Please. His own party hates him, he's just rich enough to hold onto his socialist seat up in Boulder. Ed Perlmutter - No way, not enough name recognition, record or money. He gets obliterated. Andrew Romanoff - Who knows. He says he's staying in the Senate race but has he even really campaigned yet? People were very excited about him when he launched his bid but he has been invisible since then. Probably not viable.

The primary in both parties should be entertaining as well. McInnis got rid of Penry but still has to get by Maes, a tea party favorite. It seems likely that there will be at least two Democrats in the primary election as I doubt the liberal bench just wants to anoint Salazar the savior just yet.

Political Pu Pu Platter

Busy day in our nations capital and surrounding areas. Some quick hits.

A poll came out today showing Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown trailing Coakley by a mere 9 points, down from 30 a few weeks ago. While it's still way to wide a gap to call the race competitive, it's a good sign for Republicans. The big number to take away from the poll is that Brown is destroying Coakley 65-21 with independents, the only way a Republican can win in this state. Special elections are always weird but for Ted Kennedy's old seat to turn red the year a healthcare bill passes the House and Senate is a enticing possibility.

From one liberal hot spot to another, New York. It seems Rep. Peter King is reopening the possibility of running for Senate against uber dud Kristen Gillibrand. There hasn't been any polling on this matchup so it's hard to know what changed his mind. Maybe it's just the national attitude going the conservative way or Rudy dropping out but my guess is King is seeing some internal polling showing him able to take out both Pataki and Gillibrand. Either that or King got hint of a rumor that Pataki would also drop out. Who knows but the Senate would be better of with King.

Nice of Byron Dorgan to read the tea leaves and fall on his sword gracefully. Perhaps you North Dakotans can finally rectify the mess you've been sending to the Senate? Thanks!

Ah yes, my beloved Colorado how interesting you have become. It appears Gov. Ritter will be withdrawing from his reelection campaign, possibly for nominating some chick he might have nailing on the side to be the state's top prosecutor. Oh yeah, she was also caught illegally accessing a database on a child rapist Ritter cut a deal with. There is an 11 am press conference so I'll assume it's true. Question is, what do libs do? Does Denver Mayor Hickenloper give up a guaranteed job for a very tight contest against Scott McInnis in a conservative year? He's popular but turned down a similar chance in 2006. Maybe Senate enigma Andrew Romanoff gives up trying to beat Michael Bennett in a primary, assuming he was still trying, and goes for this state's top spot. One thing is or sure, this isn't good for Bennett. He's a Ritter lackey who should never have been appointed to the Senate. The people might just be more resigned to toss him out if his meal ticket has to leave in disgrace after admitting to adulterous behavior and improper hiring practices. Republicans shouldn't be too giddy though, liberals couldn't stand Ritter either so this might actually make for a closer race than if Ritter had stayed in.

2010 Elections - CO

Now that we've passed the off year governors races, lets take a quick peek at Colorado and what elections are in store.

Governor: Bill Ritter has horrible polling numbers and is going to be facing a tough primary opponent. If he surives that he will have an uphill fight to retain office, probably against Scott McInnis. Cook Political Rating-Toss Up.

Senate: The unpopular Ritter appointed an unknown who became unpopular in Michael Bennett. The last polling numbers I saw have him barely hanging on to 50% job approval. Jane Norton obviously saw blood as she entered the race late and has been a fundraising machine ever since. Her name recognition and Ritters downward trend could cause a party switch. Cook Political Rating-Toss Up.

Senate: Mark Udall (D) isn't up for reelection until 2014.

CO-1: Denver. Diana DeGette holds easily. No chance for a Republican takeover. Probably ever.

CO-2: Boulder. Jared Polis holds easy. If he gets booted it will be by another liberal in a primary.

CO-3: Pueblo/Western Slope. This Republican district (Cook rates R+5) seems to like John Salazar even though he is far more liberal than the population he represents. He is a classic vote holder, waiting until liberals have a clear lead in the House votes, then Pelosi clears him to vote conservative. When push comes to shove though, he sides with the Pelosi gang. If Republicans can find a good oppenent,the district could be had. Not this time though.

CO-4: Fort Collins, Greely, Eastern Plain. Betsy Markey is in big trouble. She only won this Republican district because Marilyn Musgrave is fairly detestable. If the GOP doesn't get this one back in the current climate, it would be a major disappointment.

CO-5: Colorado Springs. Heavy Republican. Doug Lamborn won't be sweating much.

CO-6: South Denver, Aurora. Republican district and Mike Coffman is popular. No sweat for the GOP.

Co-7: North Denver, Arvada. This could be the most interesting race. This young district (created after 2000 census) has been very competitive for years. Republican Bob Beauprez held the seat for a few terms but Democrat Ed Perlmutter took over when Beauprez ran for governor and has been cruising ever since. However, Perlmutter hasn't really been challenged by a viable GOP candidate. This cycle could be different as former Senate candidate and Aurora city councilman Ryan Frazier is ready to challenge him. Frazier has name recognition in the area and more importnantly has the backing of many pro-businness groups across the state. If the economy stays bad, his fiscal conservatism might get him into office. Also helping frazier is that he is a bit of a libertarian socially which fits in the Denver better than it would in southern or western Colorado. If Perlmutter wins by any sizeable margin though, look for this district to go dark blue for some time.

Outlook: In the House, the GOP should be able to take back the fourth district. The third and seventh are certainly possibilities but not a sure thing by any stretch. The seventh is more realistic than the third due to the presence of viable candidates. If Michael Bennett doesn't step up his effort soon, he's going to find himself on the outside looking in. Jane Norton is well known in the state, has held office before and can raise tons of cash. Bennett was appointed to his position and never generated much excitment.