State of the State

New polls means it's time to look at November's matchups.

CO - 1, 2, 5,6: The incumbents all roll. (D-DeGette, D-Polis, R-Lamborn, R-Coffman)

CO -3: A poll commissioned by Republican challenger Scott Tipton showed him with a 4 point lead over incumbent John Salazar. I realize this is a poll commissioned by Tipton but I'm still surprised at the result. He got thrashed by Salazar in 2006 and most people thought it was a shoe in again. I'll feel more comfortable if I see some independent polling on it but my eyes are now open to the possibility of a Tipton win. Cook Political has had this race as lean Dem for a while now but I could never figure out why, I though Salazar was well liked. Mistakenly I guess. One thing about the poll is that it showed low support for both candidates (43-39, I believe). If Salazar is really only pulling 39% being as well known as he is, he's in big trouble.

CO - 4: Incumbent Betsy Markey seems to be doing her best to hide from everyone in hopes that people will forget shes a Pelosi clone. Recent clips show her trying to flip flop on big ticket issues to please whoever shes talking too. Cory Gardner hasn't exactly been lighting it up but given the state mood polls, he should still be the favorite.

CO - 7: Magellan Strategies released a poll showing incumbent D-Ed Perlmutter trailing Ryan Frazier 40-39. More low numbers for both guys is better for Frazier as he is a former City Councilman with low name recognition while Perlmutter is well known. Perlmutter's strategy of stockpiling a billion dollar war chest and not doing anything in public seems to not be working. I guess the good people in CO-7 are looking for some answers about the state of the country and Perlmutter has been so off the map he makes Markey look like a leftist Sarah Palin barnstorming the country.

GOV: A new Rasmussen poll shows Hickenlooper leading tea party candidate Dan Maes by only 8, 41-33 with spoiled baby spoiler Tom Tancredo stealing 16 percent. A two way race between Hick and Maes is tied at 45. Maes seems to have the big mo but if Tancredo stays in the race, he can't win. It's amazing he's got within 8 and it shows how vulnerable Hick is. Hick spent this last week pissing off almost everybody by backtracking on liberal talking points while saying taxes are as low as they can go. Democrat enthusiasm is already low, Hick can't afford to depress them even further by distancing himself from traditional left wing positions on taxes, energy and the environment.

SEN - Ken Buck is up by 6-9 depending on the poll and is clearly in front as Bennett seems to be drawing the ire of liberals for saying the trillion dollar stimulus hasn't shown any results. Hard to see how a zero like Bennett can reverse the trend here.

Republicans have a realistic show of carrying 5 of 7 Congressional seats (1&2 are lost) and the Senate seat. If Tancredo comes to his senses and drops out, Maes becomes a contender as well. Colorado GOP has a history of blowing momentum so it's way too early to be confident but the candidates seem way more competent than the state party so everything looking good. November can't get here fast enough.