Backwards Through the Corn

I generally believe that 123,000 people caucusing shouldn't be allowed to influence anything bigger than a school board election. Having said that, the Iowa caucus was tonight and people still insist that it is a big deal. This seems a bit like claiming that you can't have a beer festival unless Natural Light is represented but its a slow news day so I'll play along and break it down.

Rick Santorum 25%: Really Iowa? You were so confused by all the attack ads you just picked the guy you heard the least about? Its despicable that Santorum is getting traction running as some kind of fiscal conservative. If he were a pro-choice atheist he could easily be a Democrat. In case anyone thinks this means anything lets just remember that the good people of Pennsylvania decided Bob Casey would be a better senator than Santorum. One cycle before they chose Pat Toomey. If its down to this Rick or Romney, I'm going Romney.

Mitt Romney 25%: Can this guy get more than 25% of the vote anywhere? In his own house? In a format that basically encourages buying votes and shady deals the guy with the most money only pulls in a measly 25% and loses to a guy who was driving himself around in a pickup truck. E-gads.

Ron Paul 22%: These caucus allow anybody to participate regardless of party affiliation or place of residence. Word has it that all the Occupy Protesters and 9/11 truthers turned out in full force for the GOP's crazy great uncle. I'm sure that support will make it's way into New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nothing those states love more than dirty left-wing nut jobs. The only good thing about Paul is he correctly has labeled Santorum for the fraud he is and is calling him out for it.

Newt Gingrich 14%: Not bad considering that Newt didn't seem to realize he was in a serious campaign until tonight. Now that the Newt moratorium on negative campaigning has expired, expect the Newt fuse to be lit and the blood to flow freely. He really hates Mitt Romney.

Rick Perry 11%: That's a good enough showing for Perry to stay in it. A Southern governor shouldn't be resting their hopes on Iowa and N.H. anyway. Perry should at least be in the hunt for S.C., Florida and Nevada. This isn't 1960. The Southern states hold far more sway than they have in the past. If Perry gets out before he tests himself there, he's an idiot.

Michelle Bachmann 5%: Fringe candidates have to do well in fringe states to have a chance. Having Sarah Palin throw you under the bus probably didn't help much. Time to drop out.

Jon Huntsmen 1%: We should find the 742 people who voted for Huntsmen to see if it was some kind of ironic performance art. Maybe he just has a really big family. Either way, Jon has the distinction of being the second guy I'd rather have Romney over.

Herman Cain 58 votes: Way to keep that torch lit.

Summary: Who cares. The only real nugget of info is that Romney's 25% glass ceiling is made of steel. He should be really worried. Other than that I still think the race will come down to whoever survives between Perry and Gingrich. All the other minors should drop out shortly. The only question is how long Paul sticks around to screw up the math. Paul staying in is good for Romney. If Paul drops then Romney has to hope that his voters just stay home rather than go behind Newt or Perry. Romney can't grow his own voting base so he has to hope everyone else stays fractured.