Friday, September 16, 2011

Buster Douglas or Just Another Buster?

I really would like to find a way to justify believing that Victor Ortiz can beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. this Saturday.

The odds are against it, 7-1 last time I checked, and the styles don't seem to add up to a good fight for Ortiz.

Ortiz isn't near as fast as recent Mayweather conquests Shane Mosley, Juan Manuel Marquez or Oscar De la Hoya. By all accounts he isn't a great tactical fighter. What he does have going for him is that he's young and can destroy people in the ring, provided he can corner them and get off before they escape his reach.

Sadly, by fighting style alone he would remind you of a younger Ricky Hatton, who was obliterated by Mayweather in 2007.

So what can I latch on to for hope? First of all Mayweather is getting old. 34 years old and 41 fights can take a lot out of a fighter. Probably doesn't matter here though. Second, as decorated as Floyd is he doesn't have one shot KO power. Most of his fights last a long time unless you happen to be Angel Manfredy. In the last 5 years he hasn't ended a fight in less than 10 rounds. It stands to reason that if Andre Berto couldn't knockout Ortiz with those shots then Mayweather can't either. That gives Ortiz enough time to put in some work and maybe unload one perfect shot.

Maybe more importantly, Ortiz is fueled by shame. And shame can be a powerful motivator.

By an reasonable account somebody should have thrown in the towel for Ortiz in that Maidana fight. He was getting crushed and could've been hurt. By quitting though he branded himself as weak of both body and mind. That would've been the end of most fighters but Ortiz has battled back to win the belt and survived another brutal fight against Berto. It makes you wonder of Ortiz is just fueled by a desire to redeem himself that's greater than Mayweather's desire for more money.

Short of some combination of pure grit and the perfect punch though I fear we have to endure more of the Mayweather reign at the top. More sizzle, less steak and more excuses to dodge Pacquiao until their both so old no one cares.
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